(Sportsbooks) - The big news coming out of the Bay area this week wasn't how the
San Francisco 49ers scored 21 combined points on defense and special teams to improve to 3-1, but that the team finally got first-round draft pick Michael Crabtree to sign on the dotted line.
Embroiled in an ongoing soap opera between both sides since the former Texas Tech star wide receiver was picked 10th overall in April's draft, Crabtree finally inked a six-year deal Wednesday and joined his new teammates at practice right away. Crabtree, who underwent successful offseason foot surgery, is a nice addition to San Francisco's 28th-rated passing attack, but the question is whether he's in playing shape.
According to 49ers head coach Mike Singletary, his new offensive weapon will not play in this Sunday's game versus the Atlanta Falcons at Candlestick Park, but will continue to practice and study the playbook. The 49ers have applied for a roster exemption which will allow them to carry an extra man on for the next two weeks. After the team's bye week on October 18, the team will have to release a player to get down to 53.
San Francisco is coming off a 35-0 victory versus the NFC West-rival St. Louis Rams and hopes for an encore performance versus the Falcons. Singletary, a Hall of Fame linebacker and Super Bowl champion, must have been ecstatic to get that type of production from the side of the ball he probably loves most in the win over St. Louis. The 49ers, who have won five straight as the host, made sure the winless Rams didn't leave town with a victory by putting forth a strong defensive effort.
All-Pro middle linebacker Patrick Willis returned an interception 23 yards for a touchdown, while both linebacker Scott McKillop and defensive end Ray McDonald both returned fumbles for scores to help the 49ers to a 7-2 mark over their last nine contests dating back to last season. McKillop's special teams score came on a fumble recovery in the end zone.
Granted that they were playing the lowly Rams, but the 49ers still needed a confidence booster after having their hearts ripped out in a last-second loss at Minnesota the previous week.
The first-place Niners, who swept through their first series of NFC West matchups, do have an offense that rates near the bottom of the pack. With star running back Frank Gore out with a high ankle sprain, rookie Glen Coffee carried the bulk of the load for the second straight week and managed 74 yards on 24 carries for the first-place 49ers, who finished with 228 yards of offense. Gore had ranked third among the NFL's leading rushers when he went down early against the Vikings.
Quarterback Shaun Hill is starting to settle in as the starter and tossed a pair of TD passes last week for San Francisco. He has four over the past two weeks and is sixth in the NFC with a passer rating of 93.3.
Atlanta is coming off its bye week and entered the break after a 26-10 loss at New England in Week 3. It ripped through the first two weeks with home wins versus Miami and Carolina, then got a bad taste of the road in a 16-point setback against the three-time Super Bowl champion Patriots.
The Falcons rode their ground game all the way to the playoffs last season, but it's been a different story in 2009. They recorded just 58 yards rushing against the Patriots, as running back Michael Turner compiled 56 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. Turner has eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark just once this season after he finished second in the league with 1,699 yards last year, along with setting a team record with 17 touchdowns on the ground.
Turner is 12th in the league with an average of 75.3 yards per game through the first four weeks of the 2009 campaign. His production forced defenses last year to stop the run first, then take care of young quarterback Matt Ryan and the passing attack. Ryan excelled during his rookie campaign and is off to another strong start this season despite throwing for just 199 yards with no touchdowns in the loss to New England. Ryan hopes to get Atlanta' passing attack back in gear this week, but will face a tough challenge against San Francisco's gritty defensive squad.
Recently-paid wideout Roddy White has just 15 catches for 119 yards and one touchdown this season. Whether it's defenses keying in on the young star or whether tight end Tony Gonzalez is garnering more attention from Ryan, White is the Falcons' best deep threat and overall receiver on the team and needs to be more involved. Head coach Mike Smith knows that, but doesn't want to shy away from the ground game that garnered so much success.
Atlanta is in the midst of playing four of five games on the road, and opens a tough stretch of games against the 49ers, Bears, Cowboys and Saints this week.
SERIES HISTORY
San Francisco holds a 44-27-1 edge in the regular season series with Atlanta, but has lost each of the last two head-to-head matchups. The Falcons were 20-16 home winners when the clubs last met, in 2007, and took a 21-19 decision when they last visited San Francisco, in 2004. The 49ers won the previous three meetings, including a home-and-home sweep in 2001, when the teams were both members of the NFC West.
The Falcons won the only postseason meeting between the two teams, a 20-18 decision in a 1998 NFC Divisional Playoff contest.
Singletary and Atlanta's Smith will be meeting each other, as well as their counterpart's respective teams, for the first time as head coaches.
WHEN THE FALCONS HAVE THE BALL
Ryan (648 passing yards, 5 TD, 1 INT) is sixth in the NFL with a 100.4 passer rating, but is coming off a rough outing versus New England. He has to be itching to get back on the field after having two weeks to think about his last performance. The sophomore quarterback was a big reason for Atlanta's 2008 turnaround and has been utilizing his weapons, especially Gonzalez. When most teams prepare for the Falcons, they more than likely try to key on the ground attack and forget that Ryan's right arm led Atlanta to the playoffs in his rookie year. After two productive weeks to start this season, Gonzalez (13 receptions, 2 TD) was held to just one catch for 16 yards against New England. White (15 receptions, 1 TD) has yet to live up to the big bucks he signed for in the offseason and has no more than six catches in a game this year. He hopes to get on track against a solid 49ers defensive backfield. Michael Jenkins (12 receptions) is second on the team in receptions behind Gonzalez and led the way against New England with five catches for 78 yards. Atlanta's offensive line has been superb this season, allowing just two sacks in the first game of the year.
While the Falcons are trying to establish the ground game that lifted them to success a year ago, San Francisco must be aware of Ryan and the club's pass attack. Singletary will have to stack the box in order to stop Turner and keep Ryan from having enough time to look downfield. Even though White put up career numbers in 2008 and is off to somewhat of a slow start this season, Niners top cornerbacks Nate Clements (20 tackles, 1 INT) and Dre' Bly (6 tackles) know what Atlanta's deep threat can do on any given Sunday. Cornerback Shawntae Spencer (11 tackles, 1 INT) currently starts over Bly, but both players will be relied on to defend the pass. Big-hitting safety Michael Lewis (25 tackles) finished tied for the team lead in tackles last week with eight, as the 49ers held the Rams to just 82 yards through the air. Free safety Dashon Goldson (20 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) had seven stops that included a sack against St. Louis. Both Lewis and Goldson will be beat deep by either White or Jenkins if they don't prepare well for this matchup.
Atlanta is expecting the 49ers to focus on stopping the run in order for Ryan to beat them himself. That may be true, but Turner is hungry to get back to his 2008 form when he hits the Candlestick Park grass. Turner (226 rushing yards, 2 TD) didn't hit the 20-carry mark for the first time this season against New England and owns just one 100-yard rushing game. He has reached the end zone in back-to-back contests, and said this week that the offense needs to finish blocks and he must finish runs with a harder effort. Atlanta, which is 25th in rushing with 92.3 yards per game, may get backup running back Jerious Norwood back from a second concussion that forced him to miss the Patriots game. The return specialist has carried the ball only three times this season, while hauling in five passes for 49 yards out of the backfield.
The Rams couldn't find any room to run on San Francisco last Sunday, one week after Minnesota sensation Adrian Peterson had just 85 yards on 19 carries. The 49ers have a strong run defense, as evidenced by their No. 4 overall ranking by giving up an average of just 73.8 rushing yards a game this season. Singletary's defense has also yet to allow a 100-yard rusher in 2009. Turner must get through a tough defensive line led by end Justin Smith (7 tackles, 1 sack), who leads all NFL defensive linemen with 127 consecutive starts. Star middle linebacker and leading tackler Willis (37 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2 INT) accounted for one of the two defensive scores last week, when he intercepted a Kyle Boller pass and returned it 23 yards for a touchdown. Willis also posted a career-high 2 1/2 sacks for the Niners, who have won eight of their past 11 games dating back to 2008.
WHEN THE 49ERS HAVE THE BALL
Hill (700 passing yards, 5 TD, 1 INT) won't be able to take his new toy Crabtree for a test drive for at least a couple of weeks, but he's been getting by with his current batch of pass-catchers. Hill, who is 10-4 as a starter and 7-0 with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions in home games, has connected on three touchdown passes to tight end Vernon Davis (17 receptions, 3 TD) over the past two weeks. It's a surprise Hill has had enough time to succeed, since he's been sacked 13 times this season, third-highest in the NFL behind Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (20) and Trent Edwards of the Bills (16). Davis aims for third game in a row with a touchdown reception and leads the 49ers with 211 receiving yards. Isaac Bruce (13 receptions) and Josh Morgan (9 receptions, 1 TD) have combined for 22 receptions this season. The rookie Coffee led the team with four catches for 32 yards out of the backfield last week.
The Falcons struggled to contain Tom Brady and New England's passing attack, as the Pats star threw for 277 yards and a touchdown and connected on 10 passes to Randy Moss. They won't have to worry about that type of firepower this week, but must tighten up the secondary to prevent Hill from going wild. Cornerbacks Brian Williams (13 tackles) and Chris Houston (13 tackles, 1 INT) left a few plays on the field against New England, according to head coach Mike Smith, and will have a chance to redeem themselves against Davis and company. Cornerback Tye Hill, who was acquired from St. Louis in the offseason, has yet to play this season and used the extra week of rest to study the game plan. Smith told the team's site that this game would be a good measuring stick to see how much of the defensive strategy the former first- round pick has ingested. Safeties Erik Coleman (20 tackles) and Thomas DeCoud (12 tackles) had nine and five tackles, respectively, against the Pats. Atlanta hopes the team work continues for its 27th-ranked pass defense.
Coffee will get the nod again against an Atlanta defense that is allowing more than 100 yards rushing a game this season. Coffee had 54 yards rushing on 25 carries after replacing Gore at Minnesota, then ended with 74 yards on 24 attempts against the Rams. He is trying to record San Francisco's first rushing touchdown since Week 2 versus Seattle. Coffee has to be excited that defending AFC South-champion Atlanta is giving up an average of 4.7 yards per carry on the season, and hopes his offense can get into the red zone. San Francisco has scored five touchdowns in eight red zone drives to rank sixth in the NFL in that category.
Luckily for Atlanta linebackers Curtis Lofton and Michael Peterson, they won't have to worry about Gore. Lofton (38 tackles) leads the team in stops and Peterson (28 tackles, 1 INT) is off to strong start in his first year with the team. Lofton is coming off a tremendous effort against New England in which he racked up 19 tackles, but the Patriots were able to penetrate the Falcons for 168 yards on the ground. Peterson's former Jacksonville teammate, Pats running back Fred Taylor, helped lead the charge with 105 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. That's no surprise, since the Falcons are 25th in run defense this season, allowing 136.0 rushing yards per contest. Coffee is playing well in his rookie season, and the Falcons will have to be ready in order to avoid another poor performance. Strong tackling will be the key this week. Sacks and pressure on the quarterback will also help, and that job belongs to defensive ends John Abraham (8 tackles, 2 sacks) and Jamaal Anderson (3 tackles). Abraham and Kroy Biermann (12 tackles, 2 sacks) are tied for the team lead in sacks with just two.
FANTASY FOCUS
The Falcons have more fantasy options in this week's matchup with San Francisco, and their best picks are Ryan, Turner, Gonzalez and White. Although Turner and White have yet to break out and are facing a tough 49ers defense, owners should start them anyway because of their playmaking potential. Gonzalez has been a top target for Ryan, and don't be surprised if the two hook up several times Sunday afternoon. San Francisco's defense has been a huge surprise so far in 2009, and it would be a wise choice to pick up the unit if it's still available. Coffee is going against a mediocre Atlanta run defense and will make his second career start this week, while Davis has been heating up with Shaun Hill. The San Francisco quarterback is still a risky start against the Falcons unless a regular starter has a bye week.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
So far Ryan and Gonzalez have been making the headlines in Atlanta, while Turner and White are in the news for their lack of production. That's why the 49ers will prevail Sunday with their surprisingly tough run defense and Shaun Hill's effectiveness in front of the home crowd. The unheralded signal-caller has a good chance to improve to 8-0 at Candlestick Park as long as he protects the football and continues to gel with Davis. Coffee has another big game to shoulder the load in and hasn't let his coaching staff down yet. The rookie out of Alabama needs to make a strong case for playing time with Gore slated to return after the upcoming bye week. Another factor in the 49ers' favor is the play of Willis, who is off to a hot start this season by disrupting offenses and forcing turnovers. Willis will be the main reason why Turner won't be able to get going again for the rested Falcons, forcing them to pass early and often.
Sportsbooks Predicted Outcome: 49ers 28, Falcons 20
