Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbooks) - Wagering on NFL road favorites has always been a risky proposition. Even in Weeks 6 through 8 of the current season, seven of the 11 away
betting choices failed to cover the spread, and interestingly enough, every single underdog that provided an ATS victory also won the game outright.
However, a strange twist has recently changed the landscape of home field advantage in professional football, and that's the impressive current run by away favorites. For the first three weeks of November, road betting choices have ripped off 10 against the spread victories in 13 tries for an outstanding 77% winning percentage.
More impressive than that is the fact those numbers are an even better 7-1 and 88% in the last two weeks alone. The only club to fail was the Eagles, who finished in a 13-13 tie with the Bengals as nine-point favorites.
If away favorites were able to turn the tide in November, could the same be said for the home favorites? Not really. In fact, the opposite has occurred, as the road underdogs have ruled the land.
Going back to the same three weeks (6 through 8) that the road betting choices finished 4-7 ATS, home favorites were an even 50% at 15-15. In addition, seven of those preferred 15 teams lost the game outright.
However, the first three weeks of November have been a boon to those bettors who have taken shots against the hometown betting choice.
Week 9 began the turnover process with a 7-2 ATS mark for away underdogs, including four outright road wins. The early games produced a 4-1 record, with the only loss coming in Minnesota where the 5.5-point-favored Vikings knocked off the Texans, 28-21.
The following week was more of the same, as only three of 11 home favorites were able to cover the spread, with another four road underdogs winning straight up. That last number could have been even higher but Seattle, Green Bay and Kansas City all lost SU by a combined four points.
Those that had picked up on this trend prior to this past weekend were licking their chops, as 11 more home teams were favored in Week 11.
The overall numbers dipped from the previous two weeks, but the road underdog still came through in seven of the 11 games played. The onslaught began on Thursday evening when the Jets went into New England as three-point underdogs, only to walk off with the 34-31 victory.
This past Monday provided another easy score as the Browns, who were getting 5.5-points from Buffalo, won the game outright, 29-27. In between, the Broncos, Raiders, Texans, Lions, and Chargers all proved victorious plus the points.
To recap, road underdogs have not only won 11 of the 31 games outright the past three weeks, they've covered 22 of them for a winning percentage of 71%. Not quite at the 77% ATS record of road favorites during the same time span, but still good enough to supplement one's income.
TWO MORE HEAVY UNDERDOGS PREVAIL ATS
While on the subject of underdogs, it's hard not to notice how well double- digit dogs are doing after going two for two last Sunday.
Oakland, a 10-point underdog at Miami, led the Dolphins inside the final minute of play only to see Dan Carpenter win the game for Miami with a 38-yard field goal with 38 seconds left on the clock. Still, a two-point loss is golden when getting 10.
Detroit, a two-touchdown underdog at Carolina, came through with a nine-point defeat in Charlotte. The Panthers needed a missed two-point try by Detroit along with a touchdown of their own inside the final five minutes to secure the straight-up victory.
Double-digit underdogs are now 15-3 ATS for an unheard of winning percentage of 83% after Cincinnati fell to Pittsburgh on Thursday evening. There is still one more opportunity to cash out this Sunday, as San Francisco is a 10-point dog at Dallas.
